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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jun 22 1243 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
22 Jun 2024	200	004
23 Jun 2024	200	019
24 Jun 2024	200	017

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class and M-class flares. The largest flares was an M9.9 flare originating from NOAA active region 3719 and peaking at 05:55 UTC on June 22. The two other flares were an M1.3 flare from a new or returning region on the east limb peaking at 04:38 UTC on June 22 and an M1.0 flare from NOAA active region 3720 peaking at 11:06 UTC on June 22. There are currently seven sunspot groups on the disc with NOAA active region 3720 producing most of the flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a small chance of X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected by SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 00:12 UTC on June 22. This event is likely the result of two CMEs erupting simultaneously. The ejection in the eastward direction shows an estimated projected speed of about 1000 km/s and is likely originating from a region on the far side of the Sun. The other ejection, in the south-southwest direction, is much slower and is not expected to reach Earth. Besides this halo CME, no Earth-directed CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronographe images over the last 24 hours.

Корональні діри

A large north midlatitude north coronal hole with negative polarity, which has crossed the central meridian on June 18 is on geoeffective location, now in the west side of the sun.

Сонячний вітер

Solar wind conditions have returned to slow wind regime in the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed decreased from around 400 km/s to 320 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained below 6 nT and the Bz component varied between -4 nT and 4 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain in a slow solar wind regime. Then the high-speed stream from the large north midlatitude north coronal hole with negative polarity is expected to reach Earth in the next period.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp 0-2, K BEL 1-2). Later, active conditions to minor storm may be observed later in the next period, in response of the high-speed stream from the large north midlatitude north coronal hole.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 147, за даними 13 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 21 Jun 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	197
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	146 - За даними 17 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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