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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jul 05 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
05 Jul 2024	177	010
06 Jul 2024	181	013
07 Jul 2024	185	012

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels, with two M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a M1.4-flare, with peak time 20:05 UTC on July 04 associated with NOAA AR 3730 (beta). The second largest flare was a M1.0-flare, with peak time 14:25 UTC on July 04 associated with NOAA AR 3732 (beta). There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3729 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3733 (beta) were the largest and most magnetically complex regions on disk. NOAA AR 3733 (beta) and NOAA AR 3737 (beta) produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3730 has started to rotate over the west limb. NOAA AR 3731 has turned into a plage region. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Two CMEs were detected one at 14:48 UTC on July 04 and another at 20:24 UTC on July 04, in LASCO C2 data. The CMEs were associated with a M1.0-flare, with peak time 14:25 UTC on July 04 and a M1.4-flare, with peak time 20:05 UTC on July 04 respectively. Neither of these CMEs are expected to impact the Earth.

Сонячний вітер

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed varied within 324 – 385 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 nT and 12 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -8 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (Kp 1-3 and K_Bel 1-3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 148, за даними 10 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 04 Jul 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	137
Сонячний потік 10 см	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	012
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	013
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	138 - За даними 22 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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