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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jul 10 1240 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
10 Jul 2024	178	006
11 Jul 2024	177	015
12 Jul 2024	177	010

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with background C-class flaring and two low M-class flares. The strongest activity was an M1.5-flare, peak time 05:59 UTC on July 10, associated with the largest and most complex active region on the visible disc, NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma). This region remains the main contributor to the flaring activity on disc. Three new active regions near the east limb have been numbered, namely NOAA AR 3742 (beta), NOAA AR 3743 (beta) and NOAA AR 3744 (alpha). They have showing low levels of activity. Two other regions appear emerging near the south-east limb together with a returning region (possibly previous NOAA AR 3713). The remaining active regions are have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at low to moderate levels over the coming days with 60% chance for M-class flaring and 10% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Корональні діри

An equatorial to mid-latitude positive polarity coronal hole is currently residing on the central meridian. The high speed stream emanating from it might arrive to Earth on July 13.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity weakly varied between 358 km/s and 443 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6.5 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field phi angle was switching between the negative and positive sectors, but was predominantly negative (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to register weak enhancements later on July 10 and July 11 with expected mild high speed stream (HSS) arrivals. More notable disturbances in the near-Earth solar wind are expected on July 13th with anticipated faster HSS arrival.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled over Belgium. Quiet to active conditions are expected July 10 and July 11 with anticipated high speed stream arrivals. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for July 12th and minor storm levels are possible on July 13th.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 185, за даними 14 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 09 Jul 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	173
Сонячний потік 10 см	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	007
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	140 - За даними 26 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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