Перегляд архіву четвер, 15 серпня 2024

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Aug 15 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
15 Aug 2024	240	007
16 Aug 2024	236	014
17 Aug 2024	230	010

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels, with three M-class flare recorded. The largest flare was a M5.26-flare, with peak time 15:49 UTC on August 14 and is associated with NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta). The second largest flare was a M1.13-flare, with peak time 03:48 UTC on August 15 and is associated with NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma- delta) and NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) are the largest, most magnetically complex regions on disk and produced most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 3789 (beta) has emerged on the north-east quadrant of the Sun. NOAA AR 3787 has turned into a plage region. The other regions were stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analyses of the CMEs observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 10:12 UTC on August 13 and at 04:50 UTC on August 14 show that no impact is expected at Earth. The partial halo CME observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 09:50 UTC on August 14 that was associated with a X1.11-flare, with peak time 06:40 UTC on August 14 is expected to arrive at earth on August 18.

Корональні діри

A negative polarity mid-latitude coronal hole is continuums to transit the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. It’s possible that the associated high-speed stream arrives to Earth around August 16. A second positive high-latitude polarity coronal hole has started transitioning the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. For this coronal hole, no impact at Earth is expected from its associated high-speed stream.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed varied between 335 km/s to 432 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 5 nT and 9 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -5 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind is can become perturbed due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream on August 16.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1 - 3 and K BEL 1 - 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to active levels in the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 157, за даними 16 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 14 Aug 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	248
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	011
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	016
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	179 - За даними 17 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

Весь час у UTC

<< На сторінку денного огляду