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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Sep 01 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
01 Sep 2024	228	024
02 Sep 2024	230	017
03 Sep 2024	232	007

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours, with multiple C-class flares and two M-class flares detected. The largest flare was an M3.8, peaking at 13:02 UTC on August 31, associated with NOAA AR 3806 (beta-gamma class). Another M1.4 flare, peaking at 07:57 UTC on September 1, originated from an active region behind the east limb (S20E86) that is currently rotating onto the visible side of the disk. Low-level flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3799 (beta class), 3807 (beta-gamma class) and 3808 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible, and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (from ACE and DSCOVR) reflected ongoing high-speed stream (HSS) influences. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength increased at the beginning of the period, reaching a maximum value of 14 nT before gradually decreasing to around 4 nT. The solar wind speed varied between 370 km/s and 430 km/s. The southward component of the IMF (Bz) reached a minimum of -11 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually return to slow solar wind conditions over the next days.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm levels globally (NOAA Kp = 5-) between 15:00 and 18:00 UTC on August 31. Locally, only active conditions were observed (K-Dourbes = 4). For the next 24 hours, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with a chance of isolated active periods due to the ongoing HSS influence.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements in case of increased solar activity.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 183, за даними 17 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 31 Aug 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	232
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	026
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	028
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	176 - За даними 31 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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