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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Sep 17 1251 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10 см потік	Ap
17 Sep 2024	172	038
18 Sep 2024	172	018
19 Sep 2024	172	013

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at low levels with background high C-class flaring. The largest activity was C9.6-flare with peak time 23:57 UTC on Sept 16th associated with NOAA AR 3825 (beta-gamma). This region and NOAA AR 3824 (beta-gamma) are the largest and most complex regions on the visible solar disk and were responsible for most of the flaring activity over the past 24 hours. Further C-class flaring was produced by NOAA 3828 (alpha) near the south-east limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at low to moderate levels over the coming days with 55% chances of M-class flares and small chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Корональні діри

A flat and narrow positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole is currently crossing the central meridian. A mild high speed stream associated to this coronal hole could reach Earth on Sept 20th.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered a transient ICME arrival. A fast-forward shock was registered in situ in the solar wind data around 22:49 UTC on Sept 16th, marking the expected arrival of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME), which lifted off the solar surface on Sept 14th. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 9 nT to 16 nT and the solar wind velocity initially increased from 455 to 498 km/s/. In the hours following the shock arrival the interplanetary magnetic field reached up to 19.9 nT with Bz of -18 nT and solar wind velocities approaching 600 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain perturbed under the ongoing influence of the ICME and a possible high speed stream arrival on Sept 18th or Sept 19th.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached globally strong to severe storm levels with Kp NOAA increasing up to 8- and Kp Potsdam registering 7+ in the interval 00:00 to 03:00 UTC on Sept 17th. Locally over Belgium only minor storm levels were observed with Kbel reaching 5 between 01:00 and 06:00 UTC. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions to minor storm levels are expected to prevail on Sept 17th with chances of reaching further moderate storm levels. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for Sept 18th with possible minor storm levels caused by an anticipated high speed stream arrival.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has gradually increased above the 10 pfu minor radiation storm threshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain at these elevated levels throughout Sept 17th and start declining on Sept 18th.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 registered a few periods above the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours, before decreasing back to nominal levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold on Sept 17th and Sept 18th. The 24h electron fluence was near the border of moderate to nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 145, за даними 20 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 16 Sep 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	144
Сонячний потік 10 см	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	048
AK Wingst	017
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	022
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	141 - За даними 21 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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