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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Oct 12 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
12 Oct 2024	212	016
13 Oct 2024	211	013
14 Oct 2024	210	011

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with two M-class flares, both from SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 283 (NOAA AR 3854, magnetic type beta-gamma). The first was an M1.4 flare (SIDC Flare 2274) peaking at 16:04 UTC and the second an M2.1 flare (SIDC Flare 2275) peaking at 16:33 UTC, both on October 11. There are currently six numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex regions are SIDC SGs 217, 278, 281 and 283 (NOAA AR 3848, 3849, 3852, 3854, all magnetic type beta-gamma). A new, currently unnumbered active region has rotated on disk from the east limb, in the northeast quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in LASCO/C2 data, lifting off the east limb around 18:15 UTC on October 11. The CME is possibly associated with a filament eruption in the southeast quadrant. A mild glancing blow may arrive at Earth starting at UTC afternoon of October 15. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Корональні діри

A patchy, positive polarity coronal hole has emerged in the northeast quadrant, east of SIDC Sunspot Group 282 (NOAA AR 3853).

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions were still enhanced during the last 24 hours, under the continued influence of the arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) related to the halo CME observed at 02:30 UTC on October 09, but are gradually returning to the slow solar wind regime. Speed values decreased from 790 km/s to around 550 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were initially around 10 nT, before decreasing to around 6 nT. The Bz component varied between -8 nT and 10 nT but was mostly positive. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly negative, with a positive interval between 04:00 UTC and 08:00 UTC on October 12. A gradual return to slow solar wind conditions is expected during the next 24 hours, with further enhancements possible in case of the arrival of a mild, high-speed stream from the southern, positive polarity coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on October 10.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions globally over the last 24 hours were initially at major storm levels (NOAA Kp 7-), later decreasing to active and unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 4- to 3-). Geomagnetic conditions locally were initially at moderate storm levels (K BEL 6), later decreasing to active and unsettled levels (K BEL 4 to 3). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has decreased below the 10 pfu threshold but remains higher than the background. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours, pending further eruptive activity.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES18 was enhanced during the last 24 hours but remained below the threshold. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 133, за даними 08 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 11 Oct 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	136
Сонячний потік 10 см	214
AK Chambon La Forêt	069
AK Wingst	084
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	103
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	139 - За даними 26 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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