Перегляд архіву четвер, 31 жовтня 2024

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Oct 31 1238 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10 см потік	Ap
31 Oct 2024	273	013
01 Nov 2024	275	010
02 Nov 2024	275	010

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at moderate levels. There are ten numbered active regions on the visible solar disk with SIDC Sunspot Group 273 (NOAA Active Region 3869) and SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878) being the most complex ones, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3872) decreased its magnetic complexity to beta-gamma. Two currently unnumbered active regions have rotated on disk in the southeast quadrant. The strongest activity was an M7.2-flare (SIDC Flare 2440), with peak time 20:53 UTC on October 30, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878). The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days with M-class expected and 35% chances for an isolated X-flare.

Корональні викиди маси

A narrow Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, lifting off around 10:15 UTC on October 31, from the northeast quadrant. The CME is propagating mostly towards the north. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of 640 km/s. Further analysis of the event is ongoing to determine its source region and possible Earth-directed components. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Корональні діри

A northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 74) is crossing the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from the early UTC morning on November 03. An equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 75) has started to cross the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from the UTC noon on November 03.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were enhanced, following the influence of a mild high-speed stream reported on October 30, from a negative polarity coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 7.9 nT. The Bz component varied between -7.2nT and 7.6 nT. The solar wind speed values were between 470 km/s and 647 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at slightly elevated conditions over the next 24 hours and slowly return to the background slow solar wind regime, until a possible minor glancing blow arrival late on November 03 and the probable high-speed stream arrivals from the positive polarity coronal holes, also on November 03.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions globally and locally over the past 24 hours were initially at unsettled levels and then decreased to quiet levels. Mostly quiet to active conditions, with low chances of minor storm conditions pending on further solar wind enhancements, are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has decreased to minor radiation storm levels (S1) following an ongoing proton event. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain at minor radiation storm levels and gradually decrease below the 10 pfu warning threshold in the next 24 hours, pending no new radiation events are prompted by the solar activity.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was enhanced starting from 13:00 UTC on October 30, but has remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 213, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 30 Oct 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	248
Сонячний потік 10 см	270
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	015
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	014
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	205 - За даними 17 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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