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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Nov 05 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
05 Nov 2024	246	008
06 Nov 2024	248	010
07 Nov 2024	252	011

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 5 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M5.59 flare (SIDC Flare 2498) peaking on November 04 at 15:41 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883). This active region is the most magnetically complex region on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. The second largest flare a M2.66 flare (SIDC Flare 2505) peaking on November 05 at 06:54 UTC was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 308 (NOAA Active Region 3886). A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 308 (NOAA Active Region 3886) has rotated on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 279 (NOAA Active Region 3880) has turned into a plague region. Four regions are expected to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

A Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in LASCO/C2 data at around 17:24 UTC on November 04 and was associated with a M5.59 flare (SIDC Flare 2498). Further analysis of the event is ongoing. Further analyses of the CMEs observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 00:36 UTC on November 04 shows a small chance of a glancing blow early on November 08.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached a maximum value of 9 nT with a minimum Bz of -6 nT. The solar wind velocity varied between 417 and 483 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated over the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally and globally quite to unsettled (Kp 1-3 and K BEL 1-3). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease towards background levels. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to decrease to nominal levels over the 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 213, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 04 Nov 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	242
Сонячний потік 10 см	242
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	014
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	016
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	191 - За даними 20 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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