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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Nov 16 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
16 Nov 2024	150	011
17 Nov 2024	150	010
18 Nov 2024	150	015

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with two M-class flares identified. A total of four numbered sunspot groups were observed on the disk during this period, as SIDC Sunspot Group 283 (NOAA 3854/3886) rotated beyond the western limb, and no new sunspot groups were observed. The largest flare was an M1.6 flare (SIDC Flare 2614), peaking on November 16 at 01:37 UTC, produced by the most complex region, SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Regions 3859, 3889), currently located at S09W43, which maintained a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 294 (NOAA Active Region 3893), currently located at S19E34, has a Beta magnetic configuration and produced the second M-class flare, SIDC Flare 2611, an M1.0 flare peaking on November 15 at 12:18 UTC. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares from the two currently most active regions on the disk, SIDC Sunspot Groups 288 and 294.

Корональні викиди маси

A significant number of large filaments are currently facing Earth. So far, the filaments remain stable, and no Earth- directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Корональні діри

The recurrent SIDC Coronal Hole 68, which first reached the central meridian on 2024-11-07 (and initially on 2024-09-10), is now positioned on the western side of the Sun, and its high-speed streams are currently influencing solar wind conditions near Earth. SIDC Coronal Hole 78, an equatorial coronal hole with positive polarity, first reached the central meridian on 2024-11-14 and is now positioned on the eastern side of the Sun.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind conditions near Earth were influenced by the high-speed stream associated with the positive-polarity, mid-latitude northern coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 68), which crossed the central meridian on 2024-11-07. The solar wind speed was slightly lower than yesterday, with values decreasing from 500 km/s to current levels around 410 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field remained elevated, ranging from 7 nT to 10 nT, and the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, was predominantly negative, fluctuating between -9 nT and 6 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain under the influence of this high-speed stream over the next 24 hours. Conditions are then expected to gradually return to a slow solar wind regime. On November 18, high-speed streams associated with Coronal Hole 78, an equatorial coronal hole with positive polarity that first reached the central meridian on 2024-11-14 and is currently transitioning across the central meridian, may reach Earth and impact solar wind conditions.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were active (NOAA Kp 4, K BEL 4) due to the ongoing influence of high-speed streams from the mid-latitude northern coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 68). Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet to unsettled, with possible active conditions over the next 24 hours, particularly if the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, remains negative for an extended period.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to stay below this threshold level over the next 24 hours. Due to the enhanced solar and flaring activity, a slight chance of an increase cannot be fully excluded.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 076, за даними 05 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 15 Nov 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	098
Сонячний потік 10 см	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	014
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	015
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	075 - За даними 12 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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