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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Dec 14 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
14 Dec 2024	163	008
15 Dec 2024	161	010
16 Dec 2024	160	007

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with two M-class flares and several C-class flares. The strongest flare was a M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 2949) peaking at 14:24 UTC on December 13, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 318 (NOAA Active Region 3922, magnetic type beta). There are currently four numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 332 (NOAA Active Region 3920, magnetic type beta- delta). A new, currently unnumbered active region has rotated on disk in the northeast quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917) is currently rotating behind the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 334 (NOAA Active Region 3921) and SIDC Sunspot Group 336 (NOAA Active Region 3923) have decayed into plage. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 05:36 UTC on December 14, lifting off the southwest quadrant. It is most likely associated with a filament eruption and flaring activity near SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917) around 05:10 UTC on December 14. The CME is propagating to the southwest with an estimated speed of 800 km/s. Current analysis suggests a small chance that a mild glancing blow may arrive at Earth in the UTC evening on December 17. A large filament eruption was observed in GOES/SUVI 304 data around 01:45 UTC on December 14 in the southeast quadrant, near SIDC Sunspot Group 318 (NOAA Active Region 3922). A prominence eruption was observed in GOES/SUVI 304 data around 08:40 UTC at the east limb. No associated CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph imagery. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected slow solar wind conditions. Speed values were between 310 and 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were between 5 nT and 9 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative, with values varying between -6 nT and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with a small chance for enhancements due to a possible high-speed stream arrival from the northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 78).

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2 and K BEL 2) in the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, with a small chance for unsettled to active intervals due to the possible high-speed stream arrival from the northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 78).

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was enhanced but remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 094, за даними 04 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 13 Dec 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	003
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	124 - За даними 08 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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