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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Jan 06 1256 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
06 Jan 2025	168	007
07 Jan 2025	166	007
08 Jan 2025	164	007

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. A total of 11 numbered sunspot groups were identified with SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947) remaining the most complex and most active one. The region was decreasing over the past 24 hours, but retained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic type classification and produced three M-class flares, the strongest of which being an M3.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3214), peaking on January 06 at 01:52 UTC. Other notable regions on the visible solar disk are SIDC Sunspot Group 357 (NOAA Active Region 3944) and SIDC Sunspot Group 358 (NOAA Active Region 3945). Both are classified as magnetic type beta and both have decreased in area. The remaining active have been predominantly simple and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days with likely M-class flares and 15% chances for X-flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. The south-west partial halo CME first detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery at 18:54 UTC on January 04 is estimated to have an Earth-directed component with an expected glancing blow arrival at Earth early on January 07.

Корональні діри

An extension of the patchy mid-latitude positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 85) is crossing the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream (HSS) may arrive at Earth on January 09, possibly mixed with waining ICME and current HSS impacts.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected the waning influence of a high speed stream (HSS) from a positive polarity coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly elevated reaching a maximum value of 10 nT with a minimum Bz of -8 nT. The solar wind speed varied between 484 km/s and 678 km/s. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at slightly elevated conditions over the next 24 hours with an expected glancing blow arrival early on January 07. Another enhancement in the solar wind conditions might be expected due to a possible HSS arrival on January 09.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally unsettled to active with several isolated minor storm intervals registered locally over Belgium between 17h and 20h UTC on January 05. Predominantly unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with low chances for an isolated moderate geomagnetic storm.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued its gradual decrease towards background levels. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to decrease towards nominal levels over the 24 hours with slight chances for new enhancements.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to cross the threshold for longer periods over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at the border of nominal to moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 205, за даними 04 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 05 Jan 2025

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	169
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	028
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	028
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	184 - За даними 05 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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