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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Feb 05 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
05 Feb 2025	210	005
06 Feb 2025	212	013
07 Feb 2025	214	021

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with 3 M-class flares and multiple C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M3.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3496) peaking at 13:13 UTC on February 04, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977). There are currently nine numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta-gamma-delta), that is largest and magnetically most complex active region on the disk was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977, beta-gamma). Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 388 (NOAA Active Region 3976; beta-gamma). Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A filament eruption was observed near S29W48 at around 23:45 UTC on February 04. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery from around 02:12 UTC, directed primarily to the southwest from Earth's perspective. Preliminary analysis suggests that the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, but further analysis is ongoing.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field was below 6 nT, the solar wind speed ranged between 380 km/s and 420 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -6 nT and 6 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next days, although minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and magnetic field may be possible on February 06 - 07 due to possible arrival of a CME that left the Sun on February 02.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 1-2; K-Bel: 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet, with a chance of reaching active or minor storm conditions on February 06 - 07, due to possible CME arrival.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 163, за даними 13 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 04 Feb 2025

Число Вольфа, Катанія	209
Сонячний потік 10 см	212
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	165 - За даними 18 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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