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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2025 May 07 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
07 May 2025	155	010
08 May 2025	158	019
09 May 2025	160	022

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was low but very frequent over the past 24 hours, with approximately 20 C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region 4079, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) produced all of the activity with the brightest flare being a C4 on 6 May at 17:07 UTC. For the next 24 hours M-class activity originating from SIDC Sunspot Group 469 is likely and there is a small chance for an X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images and was detected by CACTus as launched on 6 May 18:00 UTC. It is associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA active region 4079). Although it is a relatively narrow CME, there is a chance to produce a glancing blow to the Earth's environment at the first half of 9 May.

Сонячний вітер

During the last 24 hours the High Speed Stream (HSS) that arrived on 4 May subsided significantly. The Solar Wind (SW) speed dropped from 850 km/s to 500 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field (B) varied between 1 and 7 nT, and its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -6 and 5 nT during the same period. Another HSS, associated with the SIDC coronal hole 111 is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions registered globally active levels for a short period of time (NOAA Kp 4- on 6 May at 21:00 to 24:00 UTC), while of the rest of the last 24 hours they fluctuated between quiet and unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 2+ to 3+). Locally the geomagnetic conditions registered unsettled to quiet levels (K BEL 3 to 2) during the same period. In the next 24 hours they are expected to continue at active to unsettled levels both globally and locally.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, there is a small chance that a proton event might occur during the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu threshold during the past 24 hours, with a peak value at 10000 pfu. It is expected to remain above the alert level during the next 24 hours as another high speed stream is very likely to arrive. The 24-hour electron fluence continued to be at high levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to gradually drop to moderate levels some time in the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 082, за даними 11 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 06 May 2025

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	018
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	017
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	094 - За даними 21 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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