Перегляд архіву четвер, 5 червня 2025

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Jun 05 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
05 Jun 2025	128	017
06 Jun 2025	125	024
07 Jun 2025	120	024

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was moderate, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 4550), peaking at 23:28 UTC on June 04, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region 4100; magnetic type beta-gamma). There are currently five numbered active regions on the visible solar disc. SIDC Sunspot Group 469, which is approaching the west limb, was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 508 (NOAA Active Region 4099; magnetic type beta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 513 (NOAA Active Region 4105; magnetic type beta-gamma). Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Корональні діри

A small positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 117) has started to pass the central meridian in the northern hemisphere.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were slightly disturbed under the possible HSS influence. The interplanetary magnetic field reached values up to 15 nT before decreasing to around 4 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 570 and 800 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -11 nT and 10 nT. The magnetic field orientation has switched to the predominantly positive sector (field directed away from the Sun) since 16:15 UTC on June 04. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated over the next few days, with a chance of a weak enhancement from late on June 05 due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream from a mid-latitude negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111), and a probability of further enhancements from late on June 06 due to the CME associated with the filament eruption on June 04 (SIDC CME 514), which may have a glancing blow at Earth.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels globally (NOAA Kp = 5, 5+) between 12:00 and 18:00 UTC on June 4, and locally over Belgium (K-Bel = 5) between 15:00 and 18:00 UTC. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist over the next few days, with possible active and isolated minor storm periods due to the expected arrival of a high-speed stream from late on June 5 and a possible ICME arrival from late on June 6.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease and, although still slightly elevated, remained well below the 10 pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to return to background levels over the next days, with a small chance of a particle event occurring in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-19, exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to continue exceeding this threshold over the next day. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to remain at these levels over the next day.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 076, за даними 10 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 04 Jun 2025

Число Вольфа, Катанія	083
Сонячний потік 10 см	134
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	///
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	029
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	091 - За даними 19 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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