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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Aug 08 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
08 Aug 2025	149	011
09 Aug 2025	150	038
10 Aug 2025	153	036

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been moderate, with one M-class flare and a few C-class flares. The strongest flare was an M2.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5074) peaking at 03:53 UTC on August 08, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 588 (NOAA Active Region 4168, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). There are currently twelve numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are SIDC Sunspot Group 588 (NOAA Active Region 4168, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 590 (NOAA Active Region 4172, magnetic type beta- gamma). SIDC Sunspot Group 558 and 593 (both magnetic type alpha) have rotated on disc from the east limb, north of the solar equator. SIDC Sunspot Group 595 (magnetic type beta) has emerged in the northeast quadrant, northeast of SIDC Sunspot Group 522 (NOAA Active Region 4171). SIDC Sunspot Groups 555 and 591 (NOAA Active Regions 4161 and 4170, both magnetic type beta) are currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate to high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 541) was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery, starting from around 12:00 UTC on August 07, lifting off the west limb. An associated type IV radio emission was detected from 11:36 UTC on August 07. It is most likely associated with the M3.9 flare (SIDC Flare 5069) that peaked at 11:31 UTC on August 07. It is not expected to impact Earth. SIDC CME 542 was observed around 07:15 UTC in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery, lifting off the west limb. It is likely associated with the M2.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5074) peaking at 03:53 UTC on August 08. Preliminary analysis suggests that is not expected to impact Earth. SIDC CME 543 was detected around 06:30 UTC in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, lifting off the southeast limb. It is likely associated with eruptive activity near the east limb and it is not expected to impact Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours

Корональні діри

The elongated, southern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 123) continues to cross the central meridian since August 06. The northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 124) continues to cross the central meridian since August 07.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind parameters (ACE) over the last 24 hours initially reflected slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from 380 km/s to around 340 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 4 nT. The Bz component was around 2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was in the negative sector until 20:00 UTC on August 07, when it flipped to the positive sector. A possible early arrival of the high-speed stream from the southern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 123) has been likely observed since the early UTC morning of August 08. The magnetic field increased to around 12 nT and the Bz component is currently around -9 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24-48 hours, under the combined effect of the high- speed stream and the expected ICME arrival, associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 537) that lifted off around 17:15 UTC on August 05.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp and K Bel 1 to 2) over the last 24 hours. Active to minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 4 to 5), with possible moderate storm conditions (NOAA Kp 6) are expected over the next 24-48 hours, due to the arrival of the high-speed stream from the southern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 123) and the expected ICME arrival associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 537) that lifted off around 17:15 UTC on August 05.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was close to the 1000 pfu threshold but remained below during the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 remained below the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain mostly below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 194, за даними 20 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 07 Aug 2025

Число Вольфа, Катанія	167
Сонячний потік 10 см	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	004
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	155 - За даними 23 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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