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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Aug 16 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
16 Aug 2025	120	007
17 Aug 2025	120	007
18 Aug 2025	120	013

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were observed on the solar disk. Several of the SIDC Sunspot Groups have Alpha magnetic configurations and did not produce any flaring activity. The most productive region was SIDC Sunspot Group 590 (NOAA Active Region 4172), currently located at N09W78, which has a Beta magnetic configuration and was decreasing over the past 24 hours. This region produced the largest flare, a C7.7 flare (SIDC Flare 5156), peaking on August 15 at 21:22 UTC. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past 24 hours. Only a very small number of minor CMEs were detected, none of which are expected to impact Earth. Moreover there are few large filaments visible on the disc, however they appear the remain stable.

Корональні діри

The recurring SIDC Coronal Hole 104 (polar-south, positive polarity) reached the central meridian on August 14. The SIDC Coronal Hole 116, a mid-latitude coronal hole with negative polarity, first reached the central meridian on August 15, continues its transit across the central meridian.

Сонячний вітер

Solar wind parameters indicate a return to a slow solar wind regime. Solar wind speed varied between 340 and 450 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) remained around 5 nT, and the southward interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) component fluctuated between -4.0 nT and 3.6 nT. The high-speed streams associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 116, a mid-latitude coronal hole with negative polarity now facing Earth, are forecast to influence solar wind conditions on August 18-19.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the past 24 hours, with NOAA Kp indices between 1 and 2, and the Belgian K-index also between 1 and 2. In response to the expected arrival of high-speed streams associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 116, minor geomagnetic disturbances or active conditions are possible on August 18-19.

Рівні потоку протонів

Proton flux remained below 10 pfu over the past 24 hours. A slight enhancement cannot be fully excluded due to the number of sunspot groups on the solar disk but is considered unlikely.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 remains above the 1000 pfu threshold in response to high-speed streams associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 123 observed over the past days. Electron flux levels are expected to fluctuate around the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence remains at moderate levels and is expected to return to normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 129, за даними 08 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 15 Aug 2025

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	123
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	010
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	010
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	144 - За даними 25 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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