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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Nov 05 1241 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
05 Nov 2025	169	013
06 Nov 2025	176	016
07 Nov 2025	180	019

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 2 X-class flares and 2 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a X1.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5922) peaking on November 04 at 17:34 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). The second-largest flare was a X1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 5923) peaking on November 04 at 22:01 UTC, which was produced by a region over the East limb. A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274) is the largest and most magnetically complex (Beta-Gamma-Delta) region on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

Further analysis of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seen in LASCO-C2 data around 00:52 UTC on November 04 show that it is not expected to impact the Earth. A halo CME (SIDC CME 593) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 around 17:24 UTC on November 04. This CME is associated with a X1.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5922) and SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). The CME has an estimated speed of around 1297 km/s. A glancing blow arrival of the CME is expected at 02:27 UT on November 07.

Корональні діри

A recurring large coronal hole, SIDC Coronal Hole 116 (equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity), which first reached the central meridian on November 03 is continuing to cross the central meridian. It’s associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth on November 06 (Other crossing times: October 08, September 10, August 15, July 20, June 22, May 26).

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours, slow solar wind conditions were recorded. The solar wind speed ranged from 349 km/s to 424 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 5 to 7 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum of -7 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become disturbed due to the likely glancing blow arrival of a CME that left the Sun on November 03 and the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 116.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally Quiet to unsettled (Kp 1-3 & K BEL 1-3). Active to minor storm conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux became elevated but has remained below the 10 pfu threshold level and is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 fluctuated around the 1000 pfu threshold at the start of the reporting period and went below the threshold at 08:20 UTC on November 05. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to stay below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to return to nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : ///, BASED ON /// STATIONS.

Сонячні індекси за 04 Nov 2025

Число Вольфа, Катанія	092
Сонячний потік 10 см	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	010
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	011
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	086 - За даними 27 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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