查看星期二, 21 4月 1998歷史檔案
太陽活動報表
本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 1998 Apr 21 2200 UTC由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理
美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告
SDF 編號 111 在 21 APR 1998 上以 2200Z 發行IA. 太陽活動區域和 20-2100Z到 21-2100Z的活動分析 SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE ONLY ACTIVITY OF NOTE
WAS AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE THAT OCCURRED ON THE WEST LIMB NEAR N30.
NO OTHER ACTIVITY WAS NOTED WITH THIS ERUPTION. REGION 8205
(N21W53) DECAYED SLIGHTLY IN WHITE LIGHT AREA BUT IS STILL
EXHIBITING OCCASIONAL PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND SURGING. THE REMAINING
REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. 太陽活動預報
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8205 HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARE. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FURTHER ACTIVITY NEAR THE SW LIMB -
THE SOURCE OF YESTERDAY'S M1 X-RAY FLARE; HOWEVER, THE LIKELY SOURCE
REGION HAS PROBABLY ROTATED ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE CONCERN.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 20-2100Z 至 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN AT 20/1130Z IS STILL IN PROGRESS. A MAXIMUM
VALUE OF 1700 PFU WAS REACHED AT 21/1205. THE EVENT APPEARS TO BE
IN DECLINE NOW WITH A CURRENT VALUE OF 640 PFU. THE GREATER THAN 100
MEV EVENT PEAKED AT 7.4 PFU AT 21/1255Z AND IS CURRENTLY AT 2.5 PFU.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. AN EXTENSION OF
THE SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE WILL MOVE INTO FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
GEOEFFECTIVNESS ON DAY TWO AND THREE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL ACTIVE
PERIODS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PROTON EVENT IN PROGRESS IS EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH TOMORROW.
III. 事件機率 22 APR 至 24 APR
| M級 | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X級 | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| 質子 | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| 碳核算金融聯盟 | IN PROGRESS | ||
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
觀測的 21 APR 92 預測的 22 APR-24 APR 092/090/090 90天平均值 21 APR 104
V. 地磁 A 指數
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 APR 009/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 APR 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 APR-24 APR 012/010-012/015-012/020
VI. 地磁活動機率 22 APR 至 24 APR
| A. 中緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| 小風暴 | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| 特大強風暴 | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. 高緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 20% | 40% | 45% |
| 小風暴 | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| 特大強風暴 | 01% | 06% | 06% |
所有時間均採用 UTC 時間
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