SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C6/SF WITH MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS FROM REGION 8270 (S21W00). REGION 8270 ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES. SLIGHT DECAY OCCURRED IN THIS REGION BUT SMALL AREAS OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY REMAINED. NEW REGION 8272 (S28E56) PRODUCED A C5/SF AT 15/1046Z. THIS REGION IS A SMALL CLASS B SUNSPOT GROUP. NEW REGION 8273 (S27E22) EMERGED AT A MODERATE PACE NEAR THE BASE OF AN EXISTING FILAMENT.

SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY LOW WITH REGIONS 8270 AND 8273 PRODUCING OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8270 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING AS THE REGION DECAYS. PAST STATISTICAL STUDIES INDICATE THE PRE-EXISTING FILAMENT NEAR EMERGING REGION 8273 COULD ERUPT IN THE NEAR FUTURE. IF ERUPTION OCCURS, IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT A LARGE SPOTLESS FLARE WOULD OCCUR SINCE THE MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTHS AROUND THE FILAMENT ARE LOW.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 16-17 JUL. ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THE M4/1B FLARE ON 14 JUL. PREDOMINANTLY QUIET LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON 18 JUL.

  觀測的       15 JUL 105
  預測的   16 JUL-18 JUL  107/108/109
  90天平均值        15 JUL 107

OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUL  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUL  002/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUL-18 JUL  010/013-012/010-008/008