SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARES OCCURRED AT 11/0407Z AND 11/1016Z. THE PROBABLE SOURCE FOR THESE TWO EVENTS ARE DEPARTED REGION 8375 (N21W96). SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD WERE ATTRIBUTABLE TO REGION 8375. REGION 8384 (S27E54) HAS SHOWN ITSELF WITH A LARGE PENUMBRAL AREA AND SEVERAL UMBRAE. IT IS LIKELY ONE OF THESE UMBRAE IS OF OPPOSITE POLARITY BUT THAT LIKELIHOOD COULD NOT BE VERIFIED. A MODERATELY LARGE, HIGH LATITUDE, FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N43W48 FADED BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 11/1100-1400Z. NEW REGION 8385 (N19W29) EMERGED BETWEEN TWO EXISTING REGIONS. THE GROWTH RATE OF THIS REGION WAS LOW TO MODERATE.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD LOW LEVELS AS REGION 8375 ROTATES FARTHER BEHIND THE WEST LIMB. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR 12-13 NOV FROM THAT AREA. REGION 8384 COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE C AND POSSIBLY M-CLASS EVENTS. AT THIS TIME, NEW REGION 8385 IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT FLARE PRODUCER. HOWEVER, CONTINUED GROWTH COULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF INTERACTION WITH OTHER NEARBY REGIONS AND AN INCREASE IN FLARE PRODUCTIVITY.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS BRIEFLY REACHED HIGH LEVELS AROUND 11/1630Z.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 12 NOV. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 13-14 NOV. ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT INTERVAL. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV.

  觀測的       11 NOV 147
  預測的   12 NOV-14 NOV  142/140/140
  90天平均值        11 NOV 132

OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 NOV  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV  003/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV  008/010-015/020-015/015