SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS. REGION 8384 (S26W101) PRODUCED ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE AS IT CONTINUED TO ROTATE BEYOND THE WEST LIMB. THE FLARE WAS AN X2/SF AT 23/0644UT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP, A LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM, AND MODERATE DISCRETE FREQUENCY RADIO EMISSION. OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES WERE DETECTED AT 22/2215UT AND 23/1121UT. A SPRAY REACHING 0.3 SOLAR RADII WAS SEEN ON THE NORTHEAST LIMB NEAR N20 AND WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8375 (N19, L = 185). A 200 SFU TENFLARE WAS DETECTED DURING THE SPRAY. NEW REGION 8393 (S18E71) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS A SMALL D-TYPE. IT IS THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8379, WHICH DID NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY DURING ITS LAST ROTATION. NO SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OR DECAY WAS NOTED IN THE REMAINING REGIONS.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARE PROBABILITIES MAY INCREASE UPON THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8375, WHICH PRODUCED A MAJOR FLARE AND A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING ITS LAST ROTATION. THERE IS STILL A SMALL, BUT DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM BEYOND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT AT GT 10 MEV (THAT FOLLOWED YESTERDAY'S X3/1N FLARE) DECLINED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS, THEN DECLINE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON DAY THREE. THE GT 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX MAY RISE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

  觀測的       23 NOV 130
  預測的   24 NOV-26 NOV  125/125/125
  90天平均值        23 NOV 131

OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 NOV  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 NOV  010/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 NOV-26 NOV  015/015-015/015-010/010