SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8806 (N19E12) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M5/1B FLARE AT 1904Z. THIS REGION WAS QUITE ACTIVE DURING THE PERIOD AND SHOWS A COMPLEX INVERSION LINE WITH SOME EVIDENCE FOR SHEARED MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION PERSISTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT MAY BE BREAKING UP AS OF FORECAST FILE TIME. AN ADDITIONAL M-CLASS EVENT OCCURRED TODAY AT 0216Z. THIS EVENT WAS COMPLICATED IN THAT IT STARTED WITH AN ERUPTING FILAMENT, FOLLOWED BY EVENT LEVEL FLARES IN 8807 (N10E16) AND 8806. REGION 8798 (S13W47) SHOWED SOME DECAY TODAY AND EXHIBITED FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS, BUT DID NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLARE ACTIVITY.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 8798 AND 8806 ARE BOTH GOOD CANDIDATES FOR PRODUCING ADDITIONAL M-FLARES. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE EVENT FROM REGION 8806 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

  觀測的       22 DEC 202
  預測的   23 DEC-25 DEC  200/200/195
  90天平均值        22 DEC 173

OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 DEC  001/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 DEC  001/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 DEC-25 DEC  005/007-005/007-005/007