查看星期五, 28 1月 2000歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2000 Jan 28 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 028 在 28 JAN 2000 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 27-2100Z到 28-2100Z的活動分析

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE TWO C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C4/SF AT 2009UT FROM REGION 8841 (S30W22). THIS REGION HAS SHOWN A SLOW GROWTH TREND BUT IS STILL MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE. REGION 8848 (S09E54) PRODUCED THE OTHER C-FLARE; A C1/SF AT 0659Z. THE GROUP IS SMALL BUT EXHIBITED RELATIVELY BRIGHT, OCCASIONALLY FLUCTUATING PLAGE. NEW REGION 8849 EMERGED NEAR S16E19 AS A SMALL, B-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. (NOTE: TODAY'S 10.7 CM FLUX READING WAS TAKEN FROM THE PENTICTON OBSERVATORY MORNING READING BECAUSE THE NOON TIME VALUE OF 152 WAS FLARE ENHANCED)
IB. 太陽活動預報
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 27-2100Z 至 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS HAVE DOMINATED THE MAJORITY OF THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT A PERIOD OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS OCCURRED BETWEEN 0000-0300 UT AND A PERIOD OF MINOR STORM LEVELS OCCURRED BETWEEN 1200-1500 UT. TODAY'S SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THE ONSET OF HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY CORONAL HOLE CONDITIONS AROUND 28/0000UT: SPEEDS LEVELED TO 700-800 KM/S AND THE DENSITY FELL STEADILY DURING THE UT DAY WITH INITIAL VALUES OF 10 P/CC DECLINING TO 1-2 P/CC BY THE END OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. THE ENHANCED LEVEL OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DUE TO CONTINUING CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III. 事件機率 29 JAN 至 31 JAN
M級15%15%15%
X級01%01%01%
質子01%01%01%
碳核算金融聯盟GREEN
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       28 JAN 126
  預測的   29 JAN-31 JAN  125/125/125
  90天平均值        28 JAN 174
V. 地磁 A 指數
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JAN  010/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JAN  025/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JAN-31 JAN  020/020-015/025-015/020
VI. 地磁活動機率 29 JAN 至 31 JAN
A. 中緯度
可見50%40%35%
小風暴20%15%10%
特大強風暴10%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見40%45%50%
小風暴25%15%10%
特大強風暴10%05%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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