SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8869 (S20W49). REGION 8869 WAS BY FAR THE MOST ACTIVE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8869 PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 19/1547UT AND A C8/SF FLARE AT 19/0633UT. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. SINCE THE PREVIOUS PERIOD, REGION 8869 SHOWED A 50% GROWTH IN AREA AND NEARLY DOUBLED THE NUMBER OF SPOTS, FROM 26 TO 44. ITS MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX, DEVELOPING INTO A BETA-GAMMA CLASSIFICATION. AN UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WAS OBSERVED AT 19/0844UT WITH A REPORTED SPEED OF 1200 KM/S. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8869.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A SINGLE UNSETTLED PERIOD OBSERVED AT 19/09-1200UT.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD, WITH POSSIBLE MAJOR STORMING AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT FROM THE SHOCK OF A FULL-HALO CME PRODUCED BY THE M2/2N EVENT ON FEBRUARY 17TH. THE THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.

  觀測的       19 FEB 145
  預測的   20 FEB-22 FEB  140/135/135
  90天平均值        19 FEB 165

OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 FEB  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 FEB  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 FEB-22 FEB  030/025-030/050-015/030