SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8889 (N20E35) PRODUCED A LONG DURATION M1/2F FLARE FROM 26/2333-27/0103Z. THIS EVENT WAS PRECEDED BY A NEARBY FILAMENT ERUPTION AND ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AT NE44 TO 0.29 RADIUS ABOVE THE LIMB. MINOR RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. THE SOHO CORONAGRAPH RECORDED A VERY LARGE AND DENSE CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOLLOWING THE ERUPTION AND FLARE. IT WAS SEEN TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC. REGION 8882 (S16W04) PRODUCED FREQUENT C-CLASS SUBFLARES. SOME GROWTH WAS NOTED HERE BUT MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY MAY BE DECREASING. REGION 8891 (S17E49) ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES BUT WAS GENERALLY STABLE IN OTHER PARAMETERS.

SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8882 AND 8891. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT EITHER OF THESE REGIONS COULD PRODUCE A MAJOR FLARE. SHOULD THE FILAMENT NEAR REGION 8889 REFORM, ANOTHER ERUPTION COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY REMAINED ELEVATED AT APPROXIMATELY 550-600 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DECREASES TO BACKGROUND LEVEL. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

  觀測的       27 FEB 227
  預測的   28 FEB-01 MAR  229/231/233
  90天平均值        27 FEB 166

OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 FEB  010/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 FEB  009/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 FEB-01 MAR  008/010-008/008-005/010