SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE EVENT OF THE PERIOD BEGAN WITH THE ERUPTION OF A 5 DEGREE FILAMENT FROM N14E16. IT WAS SOON FOLLOWED BY A LONG-DURATION 2N/C8 FLARE FROM REGION 8990 (N14E20) AT 10/1941Z AS WELL AS TYPE II (680 KM/S) AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEPS. NEW REGION 8993 (S23W06) WAS NUMBERED TODAY, CORRECTING AN EARLIER ERROR. THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS IT WAS INCORRECTLY REFERRED TO AS REGION 8986, WHICH HAD ACTUALLY DISSIPATED. REGION 8994 (N11W01) WAS ALSO NUMBERED. TODAY'S PENTICTON 10CM FLUX VALUE WAS LIKELY FLARE ENHANCED.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8989 (N16W01), 8990 (N14E20), AND 8991 (N15E46) ARE ALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M FLARES.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE ONSET OF A GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS EXPECTED LATE 11 MAY TO EARLY 12 MAY DUE TO A FILAMENT ERUPTION AND PARTIAL HALO CME OBSERVED ON 8 MAY. ALTHOUGH, AT THIS POINT, THERE IS NO INDICATION OF AN APPROACHING SHOCK IN THE ACE DATA. EFFECTS OF A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE WILL EXTEND THE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH 13 MAY.

  觀測的       10 MAY 179
  預測的   11 MAY-13 MAY  165/170/175
  90天平均值        10 MAY 186

OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAY  007/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAY  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAY-13 MAY  015/015-030/025-020/025