SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9033 (N22E02) PRODUCED AN M1/1F AT 11/1049Z. REGION 9030 (N12W50) PRODUCED A C7/1F AT 11/1252Z. REGION 9026 (N21W51) PRODUCED ONLY MINOR ENHANCEMENTS DURING THE PERIOD BUT NEARBY FILAMENTS EXHIBITED MASS MOTIONS. SEVERAL REGIONS EMERGED ON THE DISK OR ROTATED OVER THE LIMB. NONE APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. RECENT LASCO CORONAGRAPH DATA INDICATE THERE WAS A FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOLLOWING THE M5/3B EVENT AT 10/1702Z FROM REGION 9026.

SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A MODERATE LEVEL. REGIONS 9026 AND 9033 ARE CAPABLE OF M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM THESE REGIONS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD GENERALLY RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES FROM 11/0900-1200Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS ELEVATED (APPROACHING 600 KM/S AT THE END OF THE PERIOD). BZ WAS PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWARD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN AT 10/1805Z REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 46 PFU AT 10/2045Z AND DECAYED BELOW 10 PFU AT 11/1130Z. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDED 1000 PFU AT 11/1550Z.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD RANGE PRIMARILY BETWEEN UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE LEVELS ON 12 JUN WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE. ABOUT MIDDAY ON 13 JUN, A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A RESULT OF THE FULL HALO EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE. GENERALLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS AT MAJOR STORM POSSIBLE. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 14 JUN THEN SLOWLY ABATE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SOLAR PROTON EVENT AND PCA SHOULD REGIONS 9026 OR 9033 PRODUCE A MAJOR FLARE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEO SHOULD REMAIN ENHANCED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

  觀測的       11 JUN 187
  預測的   12 JUN-14 JUN  195/205/210
  90天平均值        11 JUN 188

OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUN  016/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUN  022/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUN-14 JUN  015/015-025/030-018/015