SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. A TOTAL OF FIVE M1 X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THREE OF THE EVENTS WERE PRODUCED BY REGION 9070 (N22W77), ONE CAME FROM REGION 9085 (N12E59), AND ONE WAS OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. REGIONS 9070 AND 9077 (N17E03) HAVE MAINTAINED COMPLEX MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATIONS. SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OCCURRED IN REGION 9085 AND THE REGION NOW HAS A BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. NEW REGION 9086 (S10W40) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. NUMEROUS MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 9070, 9077, OR 9085. ALSO, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE EVENT FROM ANY OF THE THREE REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A SUDDEN IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 13/0954Z (30 NT, AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS MAGNETOMETER). THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY JUMPED FROM 500 TO OVER 700 KM/S AROUND 13/0900Z MAJOR STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED FOLLOWING THE SHOCK ARRIVAL. ONE PERIOD OF SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED IN THE HIGH LATITUDES FROM 13/1200-1500Z. THIS SHOCK IS PRESUMED TO BE RELATED TO CME'S OBSERVED ON 10-11 JULY. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED DURING PERIOD. A MODERATE (8.0 PERCENT) FORBUSH DECREASE STARTED AT APPROXIMATELY 13/1130Z AND IS STILL IN PROGRESS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THE FIRST DAY. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON THE SECOND DAY AND BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

  觀測的       13 JUL 232
  預測的   14 JUL-16 JUL  230/225/210
  90天平均值        13 JUL 183

OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUL  012/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUL  030/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUL-16 JUL  020/020-012/015-010/015