SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS PRODUCED SMALL M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 9090 (N12E59) PRODUCED AN M1/1N EVENT AT 16/2147Z; REGION 9077 (N18W46) PRODUCED AN M1/2F AT 17/0004Z; AND REGION 9087 (S12 E31) GENERATED AN M1/1F AT 17/1344Z AND AN M2/1N AT 17/2027Z WITH A 280 SFU BURST AT 2695 MHZ AND A TYPE II. REGION 9077 SLOWLY DECLINED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 9087 EXHIBITED GROWTH. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT REGIONS ON THE DISK WERE PREDOMINANTLY STABLE. A LARGE MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED OVER THE EAST LIMB AROUND 17/1100Z.

SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MODERATE TO HIGH. THE THREE REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE ARE OBVIOUSLY CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION 9087 WOULD INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF M-CLASS EVENTS FROM THAT LOCATION. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 9077, 9087, AND 9090.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DECLINED DURING THE PERIOD FROM APPROXIMATELY 750 TO 600 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX BEGAN THE PERIOD AT APPROXIMATELY 180 PFU AND BY ISSUE TIME WERE NEAR 50 PFU. THE POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT ENDED AT 17/1943Z. THE FORBUSH DECREASE REMAINED IN PROGRESS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS SOLAR WIND VELOCITY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE SOLAR PROTON EVENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECAY SLOWLY AND BE BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD AROUND 19 JULY. HOWEVER, IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT REGION 9077 COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER MAJOR EVENT THAT COULD RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF ENERGETIC PROTONS.

  觀測的       17 JUL 228
  預測的   18 JUL-20 JUL  230/233/234
  90天平均值        17 JUL 186

OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUL  032/046
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUL  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUL-20 JUL  010/008-010/010-012/012