SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS THE LONG DURATION C7/SF FROM REGION 9151 (N13W61), WHICH COMMENCED AT THE END OF LAST PERIOD AND PERSISTED INTO THIS ONE. AN ASSOCIATED TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP WAS SUBSEQUENTLY REPORTED, AS WAS A PARTIAL HALO CME FROM SOHO/LASCO. TWO OTHER MINOR C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED TODAY, ONE FROM REGION 9151, AND ONE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BE LOW TO MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY COULD STILL OCCUR FROM REGIONS 9151, 9149 (N14W78), OR 9154 (S17W49) BEFORE THEY ROTATE OFF THE WEST LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH ONE PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING AT HIGHER LATITUDES FROM 0900-1200 UTC. GREATER-THAN-TWO MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT ENHANCED LEVELS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS DUE TO POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A WEAK CORONAL HOLE. THE RECENT CME ACTIVITY, DISCUSSED IN SECTION IA ABOVE, DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED.

  觀測的       08 SEP 163
  預測的   09 SEP-11 SEP  160/155/150
  90天平均值        08 SEP 181

OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 SEP  012/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP  017/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP  012/015-012/012-012/012