太陽活動報表

查看星期二, 19 9月 2000歷史檔案

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本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。

太陽地球物理活動報告 2000 Sep 19 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 263 在 19 SEP 2000 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 18-2100Z到 19-2100Z的活動分析

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9165 (N15W54) PRODUCED AN M5/1N AT 19/0826 UTC. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AND A 360 SFU TENFLARE. REGION 9166 (S13E11) AND 9169 (N09E60) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 9169 IS EXHIBITING A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION AND IS THE LARGEST REGION VISIBLE ON THE DISK WITH 2140 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA.

IB. 太陽活動預報

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 9165, 9166, AND 9169. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. ISOLATED MAJOR STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE PERIOD OF 19/1800 UTC.

IIB. 地球物理活動預報

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREDOMINATELY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DAYS TWO AND THREE OF THE PERIOD.

III. 事件機率 20 SEP 至 22 SEP

M級	50%	50%	50%
X級	05%	05%	05%
質子	05%	05%	05%
碳核算金融聯盟	GREEN

IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量

  觀測的       19 SEP 207
  預測的   20 SEP-22 SEP  210/215/215
  90天平均值        19 SEP 177

V. 地磁 A 指數

OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 SEP  028/045
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 SEP  025/028
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 SEP-22 SEP  020/020-015/015-010/010

VI. 地磁活動機率 20 SEP 至 22 SEP

A. 中緯度
可見	60%	30%	20%
小風暴	15%	15%	10%
特大強風暴	05%	05%	01%

B. 高緯度
可見	75%	30%	25%
小風暴	15%	15%	10%
特大強風暴	05%	05%	01%

COMMENTS EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEB SITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML

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