太陽活動報表

查看星期六, 30 9月 2000歷史檔案

前一張自轉面前一天月曆

下一天下一張自轉面

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。

太陽地球物理活動報告 2000 Sep 30 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 274 在 30 SEP 2000 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 29-2100Z到 30-2100Z的活動分析

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. IT IS BELIEVED REGION 9178 (S23E40) PRODUCED A SLOW RISE, LONG DURATION M1 X-RAY EVENT THAT REACHED MAXIMUM AT 30/1827Z. A SECOND M1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 30/2016Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. REGIONS 9173 (S11W02) AND 9178 PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9173, 9176 (S09E31), AND 9178. REGION 9176 NOW HAS A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION WITH APPROXIMATELY 24 SPOTS. NEW REGION 9179 (N34E07) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.

IB. 太陽活動預報

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9173, 9176 (S09E31), AND 9178 EACH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE OF UNKNOWN ORIGIN BEGAN AROUND 30/0400Z. MAJOR STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED IN THE HIGH LATITUDES FROM APPROXIMATELY 30/0800 - 1200Z. THE MID LATITUDES OBSERVED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

IIB. 地球物理活動預報

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST DAY, BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

III. 事件機率 01 OCT 至 03 OCT

M級	60%	50%	50%
X級	10%	10%	10%
質子	05%	05%	05%
碳核算金融聯盟	GREEN

IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量

  觀測的       30 SEP 194
  預測的   01 OCT-03 OCT  185/180/175
  90天平均值        30 SEP 182

V. 地磁 A 指數

OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 SEP  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 SEP  025/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 OCT-03 OCT  012/015-010/012-010/015

VI. 地磁活動機率 01 OCT 至 03 OCT

A. 中緯度
可見	30%	20%	20%
小風暴	10%	05%	05%
特大強風暴	01%	01%	01%

B. 高緯度
可見	35%	25%	25%
小風暴	15%	10%	10%
特大強風暴	05%	01%	01%

VII. COMMENTS EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間