Solar activity dropped from moderate to low levels. The M1 flare in progress at the end of last period had an associated subfaint flare from Region 9182 (N04W78) at 12/2117 UTC. Region 9195 (N14W82) had a C6/2n flare at 13/0620 UTC. No radio sweeps or halos were observed in association with these events. Numerous C-class subfaint flares were observed from these regions through the remainder of the day, as well as a C2/Sf from Region 9196 (S33W65) at 13/0414 UTC. Other regions were stable and exhibited no notable activity.

Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with an isolated chance of moderate activity from regions 9182, 9195, or returning old Region 9169 (N12, L = 080).

Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to major storm levels. A shock passage in association with CME activity seen on October 9 was observed at ACE at 12/2130 UTC. Minor storming and isolated major storming at high latitudes was observed during 13/00-06 UTC. Activity thereafter was at unsettled to active levels.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled to active, with an increasing chance of isolated minor storming during days two and three, with the expected onset of high speed stream effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole.

  觀測的       13 Oct 168
  預測的   14 Oct-16 Oct  180/195/205
  90天平均值        13 Oct 178

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 12 Oct  005/008
  估算值     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  023/027
  預測的    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  012/012-015/012-015/015