Solar activity was low. Region 9311 (N06W62) produced today's largest flare, a C4/Sf at 2044Z. This group continues to show slow growth and has a simple beta magnetic configuration. Region 9313 (S06E01) continues to show some magnetic complexity but appears to be decaying slowly. Three new sunspot groups were assigned today: Region 9322 (S23E00), Region 9323 (S29E03) and Region 9324 (N10E42). All of these groups were small, simple, bipolar regions.

Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days. Regions 9313 and 9311 are the most likely sources for enhanced solar activity.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. The field was initially quiet. However, an interplanetary shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 1008Z and was followed by a sudden impulse at Earth at 1047Z. Solar wind behind the shock showed sheath-like characteristics, with Bz oscillating from negative to positive. Bz did appear to be trending toward more strongly negative values near forecast issue time (about -10 nT). The geomagnetic field responded by becoming unsettled to active. The greater than 10 MeV protons remain enhanced (at about 2 pfu) but did not increase with the shock passage.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active during the next 12 to 24 hours, with a chance for isolated storm periods as the current disturbance continues. A decrease to unsettled to slightly active levels is expected for the second and third days.

  觀測的       23 Jan 167
  預測的   24 Jan-26 Jan  165/165/160
  90天平均值        23 Jan 174

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 22 Jan  008/010
  估算值     Afr/Ap 23 Jan  018/015
  預測的    Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  025/020-012/015-012/015