Solar activity was low with Region 9632 rotating beyond the west limb today. Region 9648 (S05E64) produced the largest flare during the period, a C8/SF at 02/0101 UTC. Region 9636 (N13W56) produced C6/SF occurring at 03/0643 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 558 km/s. A C-class flare was recorded coming from Region 9645 (S18W27) and an optical flare was also seen coming from Region 9634 (N11W63). Two new regions were numbered today, 9649 (S06E70) and 9650 (S12E72).

Solar activity is forecast to be moderate. Region 9636 is capable of producing M-class flares. Old Region 9608 is returning on the southeast limb. It has a history of producing M-class activity as well.

The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A CME passage resulting from the M9 flare and associated activity on the southwest limb early on the 1st is suspected of being the source. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 02/0810 UTC, 2360 pfu. Flux levels remained above event level at time of bulletin issue.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels during the first day as CME effects subside. Quiet to unsettled conditions should prevail on the last two days of period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end during day one of the forecast period.

  觀測的       03 Oct 192
  預測的   04 Oct-06 Oct  195/210/210
  90天平均值        03 Oct 179

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 02 Oct  024/043
  估算值     Afr/Ap 03 Oct  035/055
  預測的    Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  015/020-010/010-008/010