查看星期三, 7 11月 2001歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2001 Nov 07 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 311 在 07 Nov 2001 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 06-2100Z到 07-2100Z的活動分析

Activity increased to high levels. Region 9690 (S17E45) produced an M5/1n flare at 07/2001 UTC associated with relatively minor centimetric radio bursts. This region showed no significant changes, but remained large and magnetically complex. It also produced numerous flares including three low-level M-class. Region 9684 (N06W68) was stable as it approached the west limb, but remained magnetically complex. Region 9687 (S20W02) also showed a complex magnetic structure, but was quiet during the period. New Regions 9691 (N07E64), 9692 (N07W10), 9693 (N11E03), and 9694 (N14E79) were numbered. Today's Penticton noon 10.7 cm radio flux reading of 269 SFU was flare enhanced. The morning reading of 230 SFU was more reflective of the current state of the Sun.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class flares are expected. There will be a chance for isolated major flare activity from Regions 9684, 9687, and 9690.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 06-2100Z 至 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels through 07/0600 UTC, then decreased to mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the period as CME effects subsided. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began on 04 November ended at 06/2315 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 04 November continued. The polar cap absortion event continued as well.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with brief active intervals possible during the first half of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end late on 09 November. The polar cap absorption event is expected to end early on 09 November.
III. 事件機率 08 Nov 至 10 Nov
M級80%80%75%
X級25%25%20%
質子99%90%30%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       07 Nov 269
  預測的   08 Nov-10 Nov  230/230/220
  90天平均值        07 Nov 208
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 06 Nov  060/112
  估算值     Afr/Ap 07 Nov  018/020
  預測的    Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  012/012-012/012-010/010
VI. 地磁活動機率 08 Nov 至 10 Nov
A. 中緯度
可見25%25%20%
小風暴10%10%10%
特大強風暴05%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見30%30%25%
小風暴15%15%15%
特大強風暴05%05%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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