查看星期五, 9 11月 2001歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2001 Nov 09 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 313 在 09 Nov 2001 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 08-2100Z到 09-2100Z的活動分析

Activity remained at high levels due to an abundance of M-class flares (none of which reached major flare criteria). Region 9690 (S18E16) was responsible for most of the M-class flares including the largest of the day: an M3/1n flare at 09/0856 UTC associated with minor centimetric radio bursts. This region remained the largest and most complex on the disk with an area exceeding 1400 millions of the visible disk. It continued to grow in area and complexity with multiple magnetic delta configurations and strong magnetic field gradients. Region 9687 (S20W31) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 09/1841 UTC associated with weak Type II and IV radio sweeps and minor centimetric radio bursts. This region remained moderate in size and magnetic complexity with some polarity mixing evident in its leader spots, but showed no significant changes. Region 9692 (N06W39) showed significant growth during the period, but produced no flares. It remained simply-structured. Region 9684 (N06W95) rotated out of view. No new regions were numbered.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class flares are expected. Region 9690 may produce a major flare during the period. Region 9687 also provides a slight chance for an isolated major flare.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 08-2100Z 至 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continued as it hovered near event threshold during the latter half of the period.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during most of the period. However, active conditions will be possible during the first two days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 10 November. There will be a slight chance for another proton flare during the period.
III. 事件機率 10 Nov 至 12 Nov
M級90%90%90%
X級30%30%30%
質子20%20%20%
碳核算金融聯盟yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       09 Nov 271
  預測的   10 Nov-12 Nov  260/265/270
  90天平均值        09 Nov 211
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 08 Nov  003/005
  估算值     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  005/005
  預測的    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  012/015-015/015-012/012
VI. 地磁活動機率 10 Nov 至 12 Nov
A. 中緯度
可見30%30%25%
小風暴15%15%10%
特大強風暴05%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見35%35%30%
小風暴20%20%15%
特大強風暴10%10%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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