Solar activity was low. Region 9773 (N14W17) belied its ominous appearance in white light and h-alpha by producing just C-class events in the past 24 hours. A C7/Sf at 1018 UTC was the largest event, although the x-ray background from GOES was enhanced throughout the day. The region measures more than 500 millionths in white light, and retains a significant degree of magnetic complexity. Elsewhere, Region 9778 (S17E45) grew in most parameters and produced occasional subflares.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9773 is capable of M class activity.

The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to minor storm levels. A high speed solar wind stream began to impact the magnetosphere early in the period, with solar wind speeds increasing from 350 km/s to more than 600 km/s. In addition, there have been intervals where the interplanetary magnetic field has been near 20 nT southward, further fueling the disturbance. An enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons at GOES began around 0700 UTC. The flux attained event level (10 pfu at greater than 10 MeV) at 2045 UTC. This increase may be associated with east limb activity that occurred late on January 8.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels. The current disturbance should persist for the next 24-48 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is likely to slowly decay.

  觀測的       10 Jan 225
  預測的   11 Jan-13 Jan  230/235/240
  90天平均值        10 Jan 223

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 09 Jan  002/003
  估算值     Afr/Ap 10 Jan  015/023
  預測的    Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  020/030-015/020-015/015