Solar activity has been low. There were several C-class events during the past 24 hours; most of these were from Region 9825 (N14E16). The largest event was a C7/1n from 9825 at 0712 UTC. Region 9825 has grown steadily and is now the largest group on the disk. Region 9821 (S13W53) is now the second largest region but is decaying and did not produce any flare activity. A CME was observed in C2 from the southeast limb, beginning at 2030 UTC: the CME does not appear to be earthward directed.

Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event, with Region 9825 being the main threat. There is a very slight chance for a major flare or a proton producing flare.

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at moderate levels for a significant fraction of the day.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on the third day.

  觀測的       13 Feb 204
  預測的   14 Feb-16 Feb  210/210/205
  90天平均值        13 Feb 222

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 12 Feb  005/006
  估算值     Afr/Ap 13 Feb  012/012
  預測的    Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  010/010-010/008-007/008