Solar activity was at moderate levels. The largest event was an M1.3/1f at 09/2210 UTC from Region 9866 (S09E61). A Type IV radio sweep and CME were associated with the flare but SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates no earth directed component. Region 9866 has grown in spot count to 19 and area coverage to 840 millionths. There are signs that a magnetic delta configuration maybe developing in the larger trailing spot. At 10/1706 UTC a partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery. Analysis of the event indicates a backside origin.

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region 9866. Due to the developing size and magnetic complexity of this region there is a slight chance of a major event or proton event.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active conditions were observed at higher latitudes most likely due to a prolonged period of southward Bz from 10/0900 to 10/1300 UTC.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated periods of active conditions are possible on day two and three of the forecast period.

  觀測的       10 Mar 179
  預測的   11 Mar-13 Mar  185/190/195
  90天平均值        10 Mar 217

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 09 Mar  003/005
  估算值     Afr/Ap 10 Mar  007/008
  預測的    Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  005/005-008/010-008/012