查看星期六, 20 4月 2002歷史檔案
太陽活動報表
本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 Apr 20 2200 UTC由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理
美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告
SDF 編號 110 在 20 Apr 2002 上以 2200Z 發行IA. 太陽活動區域和 19-2100Z到 20-2100Z的活動分析 Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Most
of today's activity consisted of occasional C-class flares. The
largest of these was a C4/Sf from Region 9912 at 1548 UTC. Region
9912 showed significant growth during the past 24 hours and is a
D-type sunspot region. Region 9906 (S14W79) continues to be the
largest group on the disk and is beginning to cross the west limb.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event
sometime during the next three days.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 19-2100Z 至 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels at
mid-latitudes and was active to severe storm at high latitudes. The
peak of the magnetic storm occurred from 0000-0900 UTC in
association with strong transient solar wind flow. The level of
geomagnetic activity weakened to mostly active during the last nine
hours, consistent with the slow return of solar wind flow to nominal
levels.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during the next 24 hours as the
current disturbance subsides. Conditions should be mostly unsettled
by the second day, and quiet to unsettled by the third day. There is
a possibility for enhancement of greater than 2 MeV electrons during
the next 24-36 hours due to the current high solar wind speeds.
III. 事件機率 21 Apr 至 23 Apr
| M級 | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| X級 | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| 質子 | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| 碳核算金融聯盟 | green | ||
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
觀測的 20 Apr 177 預測的 21 Apr-23 Apr 170/170/170 90天平均值 20 Apr 200
V. 地磁 A 指數
觀測的 Afr/Ap 19 Apr 036/044 估算值 Afr/Ap 20 Apr 040/060 預測的 Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 015/020-010/010-007/008
VI. 地磁活動機率 21 Apr 至 23 Apr
| A. 中緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 45% | 25% | 20% |
| 小風暴 | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| 特大強風暴 | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. 高緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| 小風暴 | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| 特大強風暴 | 20% | 10% | 10% |
所有時間均採用 UTC 時間
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