查看星期四, 30 5月 2002歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 May 30 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 150 在 30 May 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 29-2100Z到 30-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9973 (S16E48) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1/Sf occurred at 30/1725 UTC. This region also produced several minor subflares, some of which were associated with Type III radio sweep activity. Also, it may have been responsible for several optically uncorrelated C-class flares. It underwent a very slight decay, but retained a gamma magnetic configuration within its trailer spots. Old Region 9957 produced the first M1 x-ray flare today at 30/0532 UTC. The associated partial halo CME seen on LASCO imagery does not appear as though it will be geoeffective. Region 9963 (N16W56) produced a lone C1/Sf flare during the period. This region underwent some decay today, although it retains a weak gamma magnetic classification in its lead cluster of spots. New Region 9976 (S10E01) was numbered today.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 9973 has a slight chance of producing a major event.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 29-2100Z 至 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite hinted that a weak shock passage occurred at approximately 30/0030 UTC, with unsettled conditions following. This was believed to be from the disappearing filament on 27 May.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be possible through day one of the forecast period.
III. 事件機率 31 May 至 02 Jun
M級50%50%50%
X級05%05%05%
質子01%01%01%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       30 May 180
  預測的   31 May-02 Jun  180/175/170
  90天平均值        30 May 182
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 29 May  006/012
  估算值     Afr/Ap 30 May  010/012
  預測的    Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  008/010-005/010-005/008
VI. 地磁活動機率 31 May 至 02 Jun
A. 中緯度
可見15%15%15%
小風暴05%01%01%
特大強風暴01%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見20%20%20%
小風暴10%10%05%
特大強風暴05%05%01%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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