太陽活動報表

查看星期三, 12 6月 2002歷史檔案

前一張自轉面前一天月曆

下一天下一張自轉面

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。

太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 Jun 12 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 163 在 12 Jun 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 11-2100Z到 12-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was at low levels. Optically verified using EIT imagery, Region 9987 (S15W56) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 12/0903 UTC. This region underwent slight decay today. Less penumbral coverage seen in trailing cluster of spots, although region continues to exhibit beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 9991 (S22E04) showed slight growth in penumbral coverage during the period. Other than occasional point brightening and minor dark surging, this region was stable through the period. A Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 450 km/s occurred at 12/0145 UTC. Source region of the sweep is believed to have originated from beyond the northeast limb of the visible disk. Regions 9996 (S27E46), 9997 (N08E73), and 9998 (N15E74) were numbered today.

IB. 太陽活動預報

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 9987 remains capable of producing an isolated low level M-class flare.

IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 11-2100Z 至 12-2100Z

The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. 地球物理活動預報

The geomagnetic field activity is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Day three of the forecast period may experience isolated active conditions in response to a southern hemispheric high speed stream coronal hole becoming favorably positioned.

III. 事件機率 13 Jun 至 15 Jun

M級	25%	25%	25%
X級	01%	01%	01%
質子	01%	01%	01%
碳核算金融聯盟	green

IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量

  觀測的       12 Jun 142
  預測的   13 Jun-15 Jun  145/145/155
  90天平均值        12 Jun 180

V. 地磁 A 指數

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 11 Jun  007/012
  估算值     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/010
  預測的    Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  005/008-006/008-010/010

VI. 地磁活動機率 13 Jun 至 15 Jun

A. 中緯度
可見	10%	10%	20%
小風暴	01%	01%	10%
特大強風暴	01%	01%	01%

B. 高緯度
可見	15%	15%	25%
小風暴	05%	05%	10%
特大強風暴	01%	01%	01%

PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, we are steadily approaching region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather operations is to go through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間