太陽活動報表

查看星期三, 19 6月 2002歷史檔案

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本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。

太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 Jun 19 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 170 在 19 Jun 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 18-2100Z到 19-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity has been low. A C5 event occurred at 19/1015 UTC. The LASCO/EIT imagery suggest the source of the event to be Region 9991 (S22W85).

IB. 太陽活動預報

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 18-2100Z 至 19-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active conditions. Minor storm conditions were observed at high latitudes. This activity is attributed to a well positioned coronal hole.

IIB. 地球物理活動預報

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible for June 20 with the coronal hole passage.

III. 事件機率 20 Jun 至 22 Jun

M級	25%	25%	25%
X級	01%	01%	01%
質子	01%	01%	01%
碳核算金融聯盟	green

IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量

  觀測的       19 Jun 146
  預測的   20 Jun-22 Jun  150/150/155
  90天平均值        19 Jun 177

V. 地磁 A 指數

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 18 Jun  008/011
  估算值     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  012/016
  預測的    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  015/018-010/010-008/008

VI. 地磁活動機率 20 Jun 至 22 Jun

A. 中緯度
可見	20%	20%	15%
小風暴	10%	10%	05%
特大強風暴	01%	01%	01%

B. 高緯度
可見	25%	20%	20%
小風暴	10%	10%	05%
特大強風暴	01%	01%	01%

PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned on June 14. Space Weather operations is going through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of region numbers 10000 and higher.

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間