查看星期六, 27 7月 2002歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 Jul 27 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 208 在 27 Jul 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 26-2100Z到 27-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 44 (S22E03) produced two major flares early in the period: an M8/2n at 26/2112 UTC and an M5 at 26/2217 UTC, both associated with moderate to strong discrete radio bursts. The M8 flare was also associated with a full-halo CME. Both major flares occurred along the magnetic neutral line separating Regions 44 and 39 (S16E07). Some decay was observed in the leader spots of Region 44, but it remained large and magnetically complex with a magnetic delta configuration evident within its intermediate spots. Region 39 produced isolated C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 27/0212 UTC. It also remained large and complex, but changed little during the period. Strong magnetic delta configurations persisted within its leading and trailing spots. Region 45 (N06W25) was in a growth phase and displayed minor polarity mixing. New Region 51 (S17E65) was assigned.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are expected from Regions 39 and 44. There is also a fair chance for a major flare from either of these regions.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 26-2100Z 至 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels during most of the period. This activity may have been due to a weak high-speed solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/0655 UTC ended at 27/0320 UTC. The maximum flux for this event was 28 pfu at 23/1025 UTC.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels at the start of the period. Activity is expected to increase to active to major storm levels beginning late on 28 July as today's halo CME reaches Earth. This disturbance is expected to subside to mostly unsettled levels by 30 July. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event during the period.
III. 事件機率 28 Jul 至 30 Jul
M級80%80%80%
X級30%30%30%
質子20%20%20%
碳核算金融聯盟yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       27 Jul 231
  預測的   28 Jul-30 Jul  230/225/220
  90天平均值        27 Jul 164
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 26 Jul  010/017
  估算值     Afr/Ap 27 Jul  013/017
  預測的    Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  010/012-025/030-018/020
VI. 地磁活動機率 28 Jul 至 30 Jul
A. 中緯度
可見30%40%30%
小風暴10%20%10%
特大強風暴01%10%05%
B. 高緯度
可見35%45%35%
小風暴15%25%15%
特大強風暴01%15%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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