Solar activity was high. Region 39 (S16W83) produced an impulsive X1 flare and CME off the SW limb at 23/1907Z. Limb proximity limits our analysis of this region, but it was in a decay phase over the past few days. Complex Region 44 (S24W88) produced considerable surging early in the period and is the likely source of a C6 flare in progress at issue time. Some development in size and complexity was observed in Region 57 (S08W25) which now exhibits a beta-gamma configuration. Region 50 (S08W73) continues to maintain moderate size and complexity, but has been quiet. New Regions 60 (S28W26), and 61 (N08E77) were numbered today.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-class flares are still possible from Regions 39 and 44 as they rotate around the west limb. M-class flares are also possible from Region 50 and developing Region 57. An isolated major flare is possible.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Active to minor storm conditions were observed through the first half of the period but tapered off to quiet to unsettled after 23/0900Z.

The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated high latitude active periods. Preliminary analysis of the X1 flare and CME off the SW limb late today suggests the ejecta is not earthbound.

  觀測的       03 Aug 168
  預測的   04 Aug-06 Aug  160/160/160
  90天平均值        03 Aug 167

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 02 Aug  028/037
  估算值     Afr/Ap 03 Aug  018/020
  預測的    Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  012/012-010/010-010/010