Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 69 (S07E50) produced an M1/1f flare at 13/1904 UTC associated with minor discrete radio emission. Region 69 showed a minor increase in penumbral coverage and remained a large, complex spot group with multiple magnetic delta configurations. Region 66 (N14E16) showed a minor increase in spots and area with some polarity mixing evident within its intermediate spots. Minor growth was also observed in Region 63 (N18W14) and Region 72 (S18W48). Region 58 (S07W89) produced a few subflares as it crossed the west limb. Two slow coronal mass ejections (estimated plane of sky velocity about 205 km/sec) occurred during the period. The source for the CMEs appeared to be beyond the southeast limb. New Region 77 (S18E48) was numbered.

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 69 is likely to produce isolated M-class flares during the period. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from this region.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels until 13/0600 UTC due to coronal hole effects. Field activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels during the rest of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half of the forecast period.

  觀測的       13 Aug 192
  預測的   14 Aug-16 Aug  190/190/195
  90天平均值        13 Aug 164

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 12 Aug  009/015
  估算值     Afr/Ap 13 Aug  013/015
  預測的    Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  012/012-010/010-010/010