太陽活動報表

查看星期四, 3 4月 2003歷史檔案

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本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。

太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Apr 03 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 093 在 03 Apr 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 02-2100Z到 03-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity has been at low levels. A significant C-class flare from Region 324 (S11W35) occurred at 1027 UTC. This region has rapidly increased in both size and complexity over the last 24 hours. New Regions 329 (N01E18) and 330 (N07E74) were numbered today. No other significant activity occurred.

IB. 太陽活動預報

Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 324 (S11W35) and 321 (N08W54) are sufficiently complex and should continue to be for the next three days.

IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 02-2100Z 至 03-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels. The high speed stream which began on 30 March is subsiding, but continued instability in the interplanetary magnetic field is maintaining our unsettled activity levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. 地球物理活動預報

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of active for the next two days due to the subsiding high speed stream. By day three, the solar wind will increase again, and combined with the potential for southward Bz, is likely to cause an increase to unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storming.

III. 事件機率 04 Apr 至 06 Apr

M級	45%	45%	35%
X級	10%	10%	05%
質子	10%	10%	05%
碳核算金融聯盟	green

IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量

  觀測的       03 Apr 156
  預測的   04 Apr-06 Apr  155/155/150
  90天平均值        03 Apr 135

V. 地磁 A 指數

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 02 Apr  011/020
  估算值     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  015/013
  預測的    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  010/010-010/012-008/012

VI. 地磁活動機率 04 Apr 至 06 Apr

A. 中緯度
可見	25%	25%	25%
小風暴	10%	10%	10%
特大強風暴	05%	05%	05%

B. 高緯度
可見	40%	40%	40%
小風暴	15%	20%	20%
特大強風暴	05%	05%	05%

VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間