查看星期三, 16 4月 2003歷史檔案
太陽活動報表
本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Apr 16 2200 UTC由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理
美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告
SDF 編號 106 在 16 Apr 2003 上以 2200Z 發行IA. 太陽活動區域和 15-2100Z到 16-2100Z的活動分析 Solar activity has been very low. There were only two
minor B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The two spotted
regions on the disk were small, quiet, and stable. A five degree
filament near N15W51 disappeared between 1157 and 1222 UTC. An 11
degree filament near N21E29 disappeared sometime between 15/2341 and
16/1542 UTC. There did not appear to be any CME observed by
SOHO/LASCO that could be associated with either of these events.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is likely to be a slow increase in background
levels with the addition of new regions which are now visible in
GOES Solar x-ray imagery behind East limb at N20.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 15-2100Z 至 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past
24 hours with a minor to major storm period from 0900-1200 UTC and a
minor storm period at high latitudes from 1800-2100 UTC. The
coronal-hole induced high speed solar wind flow continues. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours as the current
disturbance persists. A decline to unsettled to active is expected
on the second day with a return to unsettled levels by the third
day.
III. 事件機率 17 Apr 至 19 Apr
| M級 | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X級 | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| 質子 | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| 碳核算金融聯盟 | green | ||
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
觀測的 16 Apr 099 預測的 17 Apr-19 Apr 100/100/100 90天平均值 16 Apr 127
V. 地磁 A 指數
觀測的 Afr/Ap 15 Apr 013/022 估算值 Afr/Ap 16 Apr 020/020 預測的 Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 020/020-015/015-012/012
VI. 地磁活動機率 17 Apr 至 19 Apr
| A. 中緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| 小風暴 | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| 特大強風暴 | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. 高緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| 小風暴 | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| 特大強風暴 | 10% | 10% | 10% |
所有時間均採用 UTC 時間
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